Thursday, April 23, 2009

A possible but very absurd future

Indian politics can throw up a lot of surprises and absurdities. The present government enjoyed the left support for almost 4 years while the congress and left were adversaries in West Bengal. Consider this outcome. Both congress and BJP are not able to gather number from the existing UPA and NDA which is very likely. Also in Orissa and Andhra the thrid front gets a majority by a slither, very possible again, and need every MLA in their fold even the Communists. Take the case of TDP combine, if it goes with NDA in center, quite possibly the left will withdraw support at state level and pave way for a congress government in AP. Thus TDP must keep left happy and may have to grudgingly support UPA, from outside of course ;). Simmilar may be the case with BJD if Mr. Naveen Patnaik's vanity forbids him to ask for support from BJP in Orissa post poll.

Well a very complex machine indeed. But important to note such an outcome will be suicidal for the Congress. It will have to tone down it opposition in both Orissa and AP thus goign down the West Bengal Way waiting for BJP or another offshoot of Congress to take over. Also such a structure is very unsatble indeed, the national poilitics will be held hostage to local squabbling and removing even a small stone will make the whole structure come crumbling down. It may be wise for the Congress to sit in Opposition or rather support the third front for a brief time while it strengthens and oils its machinery for a mid term poll. It will be a unpopular move but never the less the only wise one possible. Actually Congress in Opposition will be a boon in disguise if a sane government can be formed at the centre. This will help the congress to have a greater leverage in negotiating with various regional parties since it has nothing to loose. But a extremely fascist government manipulating the system and spreading hate and carnage may spell doom for the congress. Thus supporting a third front government from "outside" may not be a bad option. It gives an immense amount of bargaining power and chance to strengthen the organization and when ever the auguries are good,just pull the plug.

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